During the 2022 season, there was a good deal of talk about the strategy of the defensive shift and how it would change the game over time. The new rule ushered in for the 2023 season will drastically change this strategy. Infielders can no longer switch sides of the field to play 3 players on one side of second base, nor may they be outside the boundary of the infield. This, however, is not the only new rule that will be seen in the upcoming season. There will be an implementation of a pitch timer, bigger bases, and a limit to the number of pickoff attempts. All of these give a clear edge to a savvy baserunner.
Pitch Timer: 30 seconds between batters, 15 seconds between pitches with no baserunners, and 20 seconds between pitches with a runners on base.
Bigger Bases: Bases will increase from 15 inches on all sides to 18 inches.
Pickoff Attempts: Pitchers can step off the mound twice to attempt a pickoff move, but a third would result in a balk.
2022 MLB Leaders in Stolen Bases
Player | Team | SB | CS | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Berti | Marlins | 41 | 5 | 89.13% |
Jorge Mateo | Orioles | 35 | 9 | 79.55% |
Cedric Mullins | Orioles | 34 | 10 | 77.27% |
Tommy Edman | Cardinals | 32 | 3 | 91.43% |
Randy Arozarena | Rays | 32 | 12 | 72.73% |
Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | 30 | 7 | 81.08% |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | 29 | 11 | 72.50% |
Trea Turner | Dodgers | 27 | 3 | 90.00% |
Adolis Garcia | Rangers | 25 | 6 | 80.65% |
Marcus Semien | Rangers | 25 | 8 | 75.76% |
Julio Rodriguez | Mariners | 25 | 7 | 78.13% |
Kyle Tucker | Astros | 25 | 4 | 86.21% |
Jake McCarthy | Diamondbacks | 23 | 3 | 88.46% |
Josh Rojas | Diamondbacks | 23 | 3 | 88.46% |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Yankees | 22 | 4 | 84.62% |
While the baserunning success on the top charts looks quite good, it is far from the eye-popping triple digit seasons of the past. In 1982, Rickey Henderson swiped 130 bags to set a record that still stands today. In that season, across the league there were a total of 4,793 stolen base attempts in 4,214 total games with 3,176 being successful, yielding a success rate of 66.26%. In stark contrast, the 2022 season only saw 3,297 attempts in 4,860 total games, however, 2,486 of them were successful, a rate of 75.40%.
With these new rules changes, will there be a significant increase in stolen base attempts? And if so, how much? In MLB article by Anthony Castrovince about the rule changes, it was noted that in the Minor Leagues with the pitch timer rule in place (which also includes the pickoff attempt limitation), steal attempts per game increased from 2.23 in 2019, at a 68% success rate, up to 2.83 in 2022, at a 77% success rate.
This begs more questions, how much do stolen bases help or hurt? Are they worth the risk? Using data from 2022, the Run Expectancy Matrix looks like this:
| 0 outs | 1 Out | 2 Outs |
Bases Empty | 0.476 | 0.254 | 0.097 |
1st | 0.865 | 0.508 | 0.205 |
2nd | 1.073 | 0.667 | 0.308 |
3rd | 1.272 | 0.974 | 0.377 |
1st 2nd | 1.435 | 0.902 | 0.440 |
1st 3rd | 1.753 | 1.147 | 0.500 |
2nd 3rd | 2.005 | 1.390 | 0.548 |
Bases Loaded | 2.367 | 1.508 | 0.767 |
We can use this data to find the breakeven percentage at which the risk of an attempt is worth the reward for each possible scenario. You can do the calculations yourself, but here are my results:
Scenarios | 0 out 1st | 0 out 2nd | 0 out 1st 2nd | 0 out 1st 3rd | 1 out 1st | 1 out 2nd | 1 out 1st 2nd | 1 out 1st 3rd | 2 out 1st | 2 out 2nd | 2 out 1st 2nd | 2 out 1st 3rd |
Breakeven Percentage | 74.60% | 80.45% | 57.40% | 75.56% | 72.11% | 64.99% | 54.90% | 75.56% | 66.56% | 81.70% | 80.29% | 91.24% |
Based purely on the data, if I were a manager, I'd be pushing double steals very aggressively. There, of course, has to be a roster that allows for this strategy. However, if the league is able to steal at around a 75 percent success rate overall and the breakeven points tells us that it only needs to be done successfully at less than a 60 percent clip for it to make sense, it's a no-brainer. The value of smart baserunners may have increased by a wide margin. Only time will tell.
“2022 MLB Player Hitting Stats.” MLB.com, https://www.mlb.com/stats/.
Castrovince, Anthony. “Pitch Timer, Shift Restrictions among Announced Rule Changes for '23.” MLB.com, MLB, 12 Sept. 2022, https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts.
Drummey, Dylan. “Adjusting for the Current Run Expectancy Matrix.” Pitcher List, 17 Nov. 2022, https://www.pitcherlist.com/adjusting-for-the-current-run-expectancy-matrix/.
Hoffman, Benjamin. “Julio Rodríguez Can Fly. Will His Bat Ground Him?” The New York Times, The New York Times, 13 May 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/sports/baseball/julio-rodriguez-stolen-bases.html.
Sutelan, Edward. “MLB Rule Changes, Explained: Pitch Clock, Shift Ban and More Coming to Baseball in 2023.” Sporting News, 9 Sept. 2022, https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-rule-changes-explained-pitch-clock-shift-ban-2023/oxa3a45feavwbjnxwfwiivxg#:~:text=No%20longer%20will%20pitchers%20be,be%20called%20for%20a%20balk.
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