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Writer's pictureKevin Busuttil
May 2113 min read

First Pitch

In 2023, the league as a whole hit to the following:


0.248 Average 0.734 OPS 22.73% Strikeouts per PA 8.59% BB per PA


If we consider this to be the league statistics for any count following 0-0, there was quite a difference after the first pitch is thrown.


After 0-1 0.219 Average 0.619 OPS 30.73% K/PA 5.20% BB/PA


After 1-0 0.260 Average 0.826 OPS 18.78% K/PA 15.56% BB/PA


The first pitch is so crucial to an at bat that the league OPS on average decreases by over 15% in a 0-1 count versus a 12.53% increase in a 1-0 count when compared to walking in the box at 0-0. This is a full breakdown of what happened on those first pitches in 2023:


Ball 38.10%

Called Strike 30.50%

In Play 10.90%

Foul Ball 11.40%

Swing & Miss 8.40%

Other 0.70% (Bunts, HBP, Pitchout/Intentional Ball)

Taking called strikes, foul balls, and swings & misses gives us almost exactly 50% of at bats reaching an 0-1 count. Despite these league wide averages, there are many players, both hitters and pitchers, that have very distinct approaches at the plate. In stark contrast to the overall first pitch swing rate in 2023 of around 30%, these were the hitters with the least amount of 1st pitch swings by percentage.

Rutschman, Adley

12.02%

Tellez, Rowdy

12.32%

Kwan, Steven

13.17%

Suzuki, Seiya

13.36%

Nootbaar, Lars

14.14%

Vogelbach, Daniel

14.24%

Yoshida, Masataka

14.97%

Kirk, Alejandro

15.88%

Verdugo, Alex

16.36%

Stott, Bryson

16.41%

Madrigal, Nick

16.67%

India, Jonathan

16.82%

Crawford, J.P.

17.27%

Sánchez, Gary

17.67%

Bogaerts, Xander

17.85%

Moreno, Gabriel

17.89%

Kirilloff, Alex

17.92%

Garver, Mitch

17.97%

Friedl, TJ

18.05%

DJ LeMahieu

18.09%


Although there was a still a trend of a decrease in production when 0-1 and an increase when 1-0, this list had a much less drastic discrepancy between those scenarios and their overall production. A decrease of less than 8% in OPS was seen when the count reached 0-1 and a 6.77% increase in OPS was seen when 1-0 was reached at some point in the at-bat.


This approach has proved to be successful for many hitters on this list. Many are up and coming young players with very high ceilings. With that being said, a ton of pitches were left in the heart of the plate. Of the total 3,056 pitches seen in the heart of the plate on 0-0 by these 20 hitters, 2,218 were taken, a rate of 72.58%.



The total run expectancy effect as a result of those takes summed to -90.9, an average of over 4.5 runs lost per batter over the course of the season. This is a stark contrast to the 60.7 increase in run expectancy for pitches that they did swing it in the heart of the plate, an average of about 3 runs per batter. I am sure many hitters use that first pitch to get comfortable with the pitcher's windup and be able to time up pitches later in the at bat, but it certainly feels as if a lot of potential runs are left out there by taking pitches so often.


There has been plenty example of hitters changing their approach and not keeping a consistent game plan at the plate. I will highlight a few players throughout the article here and the first of which is Pete Alonso. From 2022 to 2023, his first pitch swing percentage dropped 9.29%, the 9th biggest drop in the MLB for batters that saw at least 150 first pitches in 2022 and 250 first pitches in 2023. His swing percentage overall dropped by over 6 percent. These were the results:

Year

First Pitch OPS

After 0-1

After 1-0

2022

1.031

0.740

0.942

2023

0.909

0.754

0.869


Alonso only swung at 40.70% of 0-0 pitches in the heart of the zone, accounting for a -13 run value on those takes. Although his chase rate drastically improved year over year, the increased plate discipline actually worked against him.


I have a theory about the pitch clock possibly causing this trend in Polar Pete's game. FanGraphs has a "Pace" statistic that measures how much time a batter takes between pitches. Before the implementation of the pitch clock, Alonso was among the slowest in the game, only trending slower and slower each year.

2019

2020

2021

2022

23.2

24.7

26.8

27.2

57th Slowest

29th Slowest

6th Slowest

2nd Slowest


Is it possible he wasn't ready for the pace of the play changes, causing him to be less ready to swing on a pitch by pitch basis? Now while it may make more sense for Alonso to swing a bit more, it has been quite the contrary for former MVP, Mookie Betts.


The Dodgers star had an even bigger drop off in swings than Alonso from 2022 to 2023. His 0-0 swings decreased by 11.73%, the 2nd biggest drop in the MLB.



Back in 2018, Mookie Betts won the MVP award with the Boston Red Sox and only swung at 9.8 percent of first pitches, the 5th lowest rate in baseball for the season. It went up a great deal in 2019 to 16.5% then to 24.0% in 2020, and after a short dip to 19.1% in 2021, it spiked to over 30% in 2022. His walk rate plummeted as a result of all the extra swings, and although he was still very productive, he had the lowest on-base percentage of his career in 2022.


The thing about Betts is that swinging and missing has never been an issue. He has been at the 88th percentile or above in whiff rate every year for his entire career. The quality of the contact on those swings can be called into question at times though.

Year

1st Pitch Swing %

xwOBA Percentile

Barrel % Percentile

2023

18.50%

97th

82nd

2022

30.40%

78th

65th

2021

19.10%

78th

43rd

2020

24.00%

78th

48th

2019

16.50%

98th

71st

2018

9.80%

100th

96th

Now, to be clear, my argument isn't that Mookie Betts hasn't been extremely productive even in his "down" years. In the 4 season stretch from 2019 to 2022, he still had over an 0.850 OPS in each season and received MVP votes in 3 of those 4. With that being said, the Mookie Betts that gets talked about in consideration for the best player in the game is the Mookie Betts that swings far less than 30 percent of the time at the first pitch.


On the pitching side, getting ahead of a batter with strikes early on in the count can be the difference between a great outing and a not so great one. In 2023, these were the top 10 pitchers in first strike percentage (Threw at least 400 first pitches):


Rank

Player

1st Pitch Strike %

1

Scherzer, Max

70.00%

2

Taillon, Jameson

69.60%

3

Kirby, George

69.40%

4

López, Pablo

69.20%

5

Glasnow, Tyler

69.00%

6

Civale, Aaron

68.70%

7

Kershaw, Clayton

68.30%

8

Mikolas, Miles

67.90%

9

Cole, Gerrit

67.60%

10

Bieber, Shane

67.50%


It is no surprise here that we see a few big names. Throwing first pitch strikes typically translates to a better ERA, but with that being said, throwing fastballs down the middle doesn't do a pitcher any favors. The next 2 players I am going to highlight are pitchers with very different approaches to throwing strikes: New York Mets starter Kodai Senga and Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele.


Justin Steele, although successful in 2022, had the 7th biggest increase in first pitch strikes from 2022 to 2023. His percentage increased by 5.69% to 65.5%, which ranked him 23rd overall in 2023 among pitchers who threw at least 400 first pitches. He was able to cut his BB/9 rate in half from 3.8 in 2022 to 1.9 in 2023. His 2023 total of 1.9 ranked 7th best in the MLB and, although Steele didn't qualify in 2022, Dylan Cease was ranked last among qualifiers with a 3.82 BB/9, a rate only slightly worse than the Cub's young starter.



Steele is virtually a 2-pitch pitcher with his 4-seam fastball and slider accounting for over 96% of his pitches in 2023. Both pitches were among the best in the league in movement, the slider ranking 8th in horizontal movement vs. the average and the fastball ranked 5th in vertical drop vs the average. That movement accompanied by a lower velocity than we typically see in today's game allowed him to rank among the best in groundball rate and limit home runs to just 0.73 per 9 innings.


The biggest jump in Steele's game from 2022 to 2023 was his ability to work as effectively outside the zone as he did in the zone. In getting more strikes early in the count, Steele was able to work from ahead in the count and induce chases. He was 1 of only 2 pitchers with a positive run value in Statcast's chase region of the zone. His slider, at a +6 run value, was the best pitch in baseball in that region of the zone. Overall for pitches in the chase and waste regions of the plate, Steele was 1st in baseball in run value for pitchers that threw at least 500 pitches in those zones. He was also 1st in run value per plate appearance in the chase and waste zones, a huge upgrade from his ranking of 58th in 2022.




Justin Steele vs. Mookie Betts - April 14th, 2023


With both players improving their approach to each at bat in 2023, how did they fair against each other in their only game matchup of the season?


1st AB None On 0 Out Bottom 1st



This is a perfect example of Steele getting a first pitch strike and ultimately ending the at-bat with inducing a chase. Betts was able to stay patient to try and find his pitch, but the 2-1 slider was perfectly executed.


2nd AB Man on 1st 0 Out Bottom 3rd



Another perfectly painted first pitch strike. The slider wasn't perfectly executed on 1-1 and Mookie missed it. With that being said, if Steele doesn't get ahead early, it is a completely different at-bat at 2-0.


3rd AB None On 0 Out Bottom 6th



3 for 3 on perfectly executed first pitches, but this time with the slider to start. Steele does get the out here, but another hard hit ball on a pitch that got a little too much plate. If Steele was a harder throwing guy, I think Mookie might have beat him here. Betts only saw 2 solid pitches to hit and he put a good swing on both of them, but just couldn't collect a hit.


That brings us to Kodai Senga. In 2023, 139 pitchers threw at least 400 first pitches. Senga ranked 130th out of 139 in first strike pitch percentage. He ranked in the 15th percentile in walk rate, but was effective at striking out batters, ranking in the 87th percentile there.



The Mets young starter has a very effective 4-seam fastball that he throws in the mid to high 90s that pairs very well with his cutter and forkball. The 3 pitches made up over 85% of his total pitches for the season. This was his pitch breakdown per count:

Count

4-Seam

Cutter

Forkball

Other (SL, CRV)

0-0

41.70%

24.40%

8.80%

25.10%

1-0

42.50%

42.10%

6.70%

8.60%

0-1

27.70%

15.60%

34.70%

21.90%

With 2 Strikes

35.00%

11.70%

45.20%

8.10%

Expect fastballs early and when he is behind in the count, but look out for the forkball once he gets ahead. His fastball run value ranked in the 99th percentile and his off-speed run value ranked in the 98th percentile. Overall, his total run value of 28 ranked 4th in all of baseball in 2023. The stuff is definitely there, but with a larger sample size and a 4.2 BB/9, he may struggle if he doesn't throw more strikes and get ahead more often.


Kodai Senga vs. Mookie Betts - July 15th, 2023


1st AB None On 0 Out Top 1st



This is a tough matchup for Senga. Since Betts is a great disciplined hitter, he doesn't even bother throwing the forkballs below the zone in this 2 strike count. Senga threw good strikes, but the 1-2 fastball got too much of the plate.


2nd AB None On 2 Out Top 3rd



Getting behind in the count to Mookie Betts is not advisable, but Senga made great pitches on 1-0 and 2-1 to stay in the at-bat. He gave Betts quite a few looks at the fastball with 3 of 4 pitches in the first at-bat and 3 of 5 in the 2nd at-bat. Betts was able to take the outside fastball the other way for a homer to take the lead.


3rd AB None On 0 Out Top 6th



Senga completely does a 180 here. After throwing a fastball in 6 of 9 pitches on his first 2 at-bats against Betts, he only throws 1 four-seam fastball in 7 pitches in this at-bat. He starts him off with a cutter that just clips the zone and follows it up with a slider on the outside corner. Mookie was just too good on this day. He stays off the low forkballs with 2 strikes, which not many are able to do, and then takes a hanging slider the other way for a single.


Although Betts went 3 for 3 here, Pitching Ninja's video below gives props to Senga and his forkball in his dominant start against the Phillies in May of 2023. It is an awesome watch.




I wanted to go back and breakdown 2 guys that we breezed over along the way. The first of which is Adley Rutschman, who appeared earlier as having the lowest 1st pitch swing rate in the MLB in 2023.


In 2022, he was only slightly higher and landed at the 5th lowest swing rate on 1st pitches. Since he has been called up, he has been exceptional at two things: discipline and hitting fastballs. Between 2022 and 2023, he had a 0.309 average and 0.543 slugging percentage on fastballs. He can struggle with off-speed and breaking pitches at times, but is also in the 80th percentile in chase rate. If you're trying to get him out, you need to do it with strikes.


On Opening Day in 2023, Rutschman had the performance of a lifetime. 5 for 5 with a walk in a 10-9 victory over the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. For pitches in the 4 attack regions of the zone, these were the results:


Waste Zone 7 Pitches 7 Takes 7 Balls

Chase Zone 1 Pitch 1 Take 1 Ball

Shadow Zone 13 Pitches 6 Takes 7 Swings 3 Balls 3 Called Strikes 3 Foul 4 Hits

Heart Zone 4 Pitches 1 Take 3 Swings 1 Called Strike 2 Foul 1 Hit


Total 25 Pitches 15 Takes 10 Swings 5 Hits 0 Swings & Misses


The Orioles catcher also faced a pitcher that appeared on our list earlier in 2023 and put in a solid performance.


Adley Rutschman vs. Justin Steele - June 17th, 2023


1st AB None On 1 Out Top 1st



To no surprise, Steele gets a first pitch strike and Rutschman takes it. The first 0-2 pitch could have proposed an issue for Steele being middle-middle, but Adley missed it. 96 miles per hour off the bat but foul. Give the credit to Steele, though, he peppered the zone and never let Rutschman get comfortable at the plate.


2nd AB None On 2 Out Top 3rd



A relatively uneventful at-bat here. It looks like the first pitch slips out of Steele's hand and he comes back with a slider that finds too much plate, but is able to get another groundout from Rutschman.


3rd AB Man on 1st 2 Out Top 5th



Rutschman takes a rare offer at the first pitch, but misses it. Later in the at-bat, once again Steele tries to get away with a slider that hangs over the plate a bit much, but he isn't as lucky this time. Adley hits it 101.1 miles per hour off the bat and deposits it over the left center field wall to tie the game at 2. Adley Rutschman has a great ability to get the bat on the ball consistently and foul off pitches until he gets a good pitch to hit.


The final player that I felt needed a breakdown is Aaron Nola. He just signed a long term deal to stay with the Phillies and be a big part of that rotation. The reason he popped on the radar is that in 2022 he was the best in baseball for 1st pitch strikes at right around 70%.



Although in 2023 his 1st pitch strike rate went down, he was still able to limit walks and have success. On paper, his 12-9 record with a 4.46 ERA in 2023 doesn't look good at all. He had a very similar performance in 2021 with a 9-9 record and a 4.63 ERA. When you look a little deeper into the analytics, though, the xERA tells an interesting story:

Year

Actual ERA

xERA (Expected ERA)

Difference ERA - xERA Ranking

2021

4.63

3.35

1.28 Ranked 2nd Highest

2022

3.25

2.74

0.51 Ranked 11th Highest

2023

4.46

3.71

0.75 Ranked 9th Highest

Nola fell just shy of being in the top 10 for 3 straight years in having an ERA much higher than expected. If you look at his FIP numbers, they tell the same story. We'll get to the terrible Phillies fielding in a second, but first we have to look at a change in Nola's game.


From 2016 to 2020, Nola never ranked below the 72nd percentile in groundball rate for those 5 seasons. Only his rookie year in 2015 did he drop below the 72nd and came in at the 67th percentile. However, in 2021, he ranked 37th, 2022 he ranked 55th, and in 2023, he ranked 53rd. It was hard to make sense of exactly why this was the case. His pitch location, spin rates, and velocity all remained relatively stable. He did play around a lot with his pitch mix over time. For instance, he added a cutter in 2021, he saw less success with his curveball from 2020 on, and the frequency of the use of his sinker changed over time.


All this to say is that the increase in flyballs directly impacted how the fielding problem in Philly affected his ERA. Comparing the average launch angle against him from 2017 to 2022 of 8.98 to the average launch angle from 2021 to 2023 of 13.2, it was a 47.1% change. This wasn't gradual; it was quick and drastic.


To show the defensive impact, I used the Range Runs (RngR) statistic from Fangraphs as defined here:


RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.


For 2021 to 2023, the Phillies infield in range runs was bad with a total of -11.4, which ranked 24th, but their outfield was the real issue. For all 3 outfield positions, they totaled -39.1 in range runs, which was last by a long shot. The 29th ranked team had -27.8, almost 29% better than the Phillies. If Nola was able to produce more groundouts as he was in prior years, the huge hit to his ERA might not have been seen so clearly. This is the complete table for the Phillies range from 2021 to 2023:


From 2021-2023

Total RngR

For LF

For CF

For RF

For Infield no C

As OF

Range Runs

-50.5 (30th)

-22.1 (30th)

6.0 (11th)

-22.9 (30th)

-11.4 (24th)

-39.1 (30th)

Team in 29th Place

-36.3

-13.3


-13.9


-27.8

% Better than PHI

28.12%

39.82%


39.30%


28.90%


Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos were the 2 worst in baseball in this measure and it certainly showed in the overall team totals. We're going to breakdown Nola's matchup with Pete Alonso in 2023, but first let's see this defense in action:



All 8 of these were ruled hits, 6 of which were extra-base hits. Only 3 of the 8 happened to be with Nola on the mound, but there are endless examples of potential outs becoming hits against this outfield pair.


The reason that I brought up Aaron Nola is that at first I wanted to show that his drop in 1st pitch strikes was a reason for his drastic change in ERA. Now while it did have an impact, it is hard to argue against Nola with this defense stacked behind him. He is a great pitcher who has had a 1st pitch strike percentage of 65.7% for his career. That career average total would have ranked him 20th in the MLB in 2023. Moral of the story is, throw more strikes and good things will happen.


P.S. That last sentence is only true if your defense isn't terrible.


Aaron Nola vs Pete Alonso - May 31st, 2023


All 3 at-bats are going to be included together here because there was only a total of 7 pitches and it goes by very quickly.



Right on par with Alonso's 2023 approach, he didn't offer at any of the first pitches. That approach did land him two chances with a 1-0 count, one of which turned into a hard hit single to the left side. Nola had a right to be a little wary of early strikes here, however. Alonso has offered at 18 first pitches against Nola in his career and swung and missed at only 3. Of the 6 balls he put in play from those 18, three of them were outs and the other three were extra-base hits, 2 homers and a double.



Sources








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