I grew up in Long Island New York, born into Yankee fandom, right smack in the middle of their 1998-2000 three-peat. I wasn't old enough to watch and comprehend their greatness at that point in my life, but I was able to grow up with a love of Derek Jeter and the winning seasons that came with his presence. In more recent years as a fan, I have gotten increasingly more frustrated with the abundance of strikeouts that seemed to happen in big spots, particularly with runners on base.
At the beginning of 2023, before the season started, I moved to the Baltimore, Maryland area in pursuit of a better financial situation than New York offered. I not only found what I was looking for, but I grew to love watching the Baltimore Orioles. The organization shows that they value their fans and the youth on the field puts the fans in the seats. A huge thing that jumped out at me is that they always seemed to put the ball in play. When runners got on, they were moved over. When runs needed to be manufactured, even through outs, they were, and the win column reflected that.
After watching the full 2023 season unfold, I decided to examine the statistical validity of my personal experience. As the game has moved to a more strikeout-home run type approach for many hitters, has the value of productive outs been lost in the mix?
To use the 2023 Orioles as an example:
17th in PA w/RISP 2nd in RBIs w/RISP 0.384 RBIs per PA is 1st K% 2nd Lowest
19th in PA w/Runners on Base 6th in RBIs w/ROB 0.254 RBIs per PA is 2nd K% 6th Lowest
16th in OBP 7th in Total Runs
The team made the most of the opportunities they had. Despite not having a juggernaut offense in which they could top the league in runners reaching base and getting into scoring position, they took advantage of the shots they had. To go even further, if the Orioles had as many plate appearances as the Texas Rangers did with runners on base, they would have scored an additional 60 runs based on their scoring rate. This would have shot them up to 4th in the league in scoring and 2nd in the American League.
I promise I won't exclusively talk about the Orioles, but let's go a little more into depth:
< 2 outs and RISP 1st in % of groundballs and flyballs hit to the right side of the field
< 2 outs and Runner on 3rd 1st in % of balls put in play
Any # of outs and RISP 2nd Lowest K%
It begs the question, do these trends persist across the league? Is there a correlation between wins and balls being put in play? I set out to answer these questions and many more on the topic.
Does K% have a strong negative correlation with runs scored across the league?
In 2023, runs and K percentage did have a negative correlation, but it was far from what would be called "strong". The 2 variables only had a -0.209 r value, which is considered to be a weak correlation. Plain and simple, there are much more factors to consider in finding a winning team.
It does add to the story though, however, that the correlation for runs as compared to K percentage with runners in scoring position, jumps to a moderate relationship with a -0.414 r value. Again, it by no means encompasses the essence of a good offense, but in theory, strikeout rate with runners in scoring position matters twice as much as any other scenario in scoring runs effectively.
Is making more contact at the risk of more double plays worth it?
First things first is looking at the Run Expectancy Matrix from 2022 to determine the value of each situation:
| 0 Outs | 1 Out | 2 Outs |
_ _ _ | 0.476 | 0.254 | 0.097 |
1 _ _ | 0.865 | 0.508 | 0.205 |
_ 2 _ | 1.073 | 0.667 | 0.308 |
_ _ 3 | 1.272 | 0.974 | 0.377 |
1 2 _ | 1.435 | 0.902 | 0.440 |
1 _ 3 | 1.753 | 1.147 | 0.500 |
_ 2 3 | 2.005 | 1.390 | 0.548 |
1 2 3 | 2.367 | 1.508 | 0.767 |
As an example, if we had men on 1st and 2nd with nobody out, we would expect to score 1.435 runs. A double play resulting in a man on 3rd with 2 outs drops the run expectancy by more than an entire run. However, if only 1 out was recorded, either at first or second base, both scenarios would only drop the run expectancy slightly.
The conversion of double plays wasn't as high as I thought, however, with a conversion rate of less than 10% in 2023:
Double plays with a runner on 1st base 3,752 out of 38,785 scenarios 9.67%
Double plays with runners on base 3,843 out of 54,687 scenarios 7.03%
***Runner on 1st base also includes 1st and 2nd, bases loaded, etc. ***
Other outcomes in the same scenarios resulting in less than 2 outs being recorded were as follows in 2023:
FC, Error, Force out with a runner on 1st base 4,153 out of 38,785 scenarios 10.71%
FC, Error, Force out with runners on base 4,626 out of 54,687 scenarios 8.46%
There are more circumstances of 1 out or even 0 outs being recorded on fielder's choices, errors, and force outs than the conversion of double plays throughout the league. That trend extends beyond 2023 as well with very similar percentages for each.
To extend the data into sacrifice flies, the run conversion rate for balls put in play with a runner on 3rd base is quite high.
Of the 2,753 balls put in play to the outfield in 2023 with a runner on 3rd base and less than 2 outs, these were the results:
1,163 Hits 42.24%
1,197 Sacrifice Flies 43.48%
349 Not Sent 12.68%
43 Thrown Out Double Play 1.56%
1 Error 0.04%
Not overly surprising or exciting data, but it goes along with the previous data. Double plays just don't happen often enough to justify a reason to not put the ball in play in an attempt to move runners over.
Does a high strikeout rate limit the value of a hitter?
The short answer is yes, but up to a certain point. In 2023, there were 134 qualified players, exactly half of which had below a 21% strikeout rate. We will use that as our average benchmark to measure from.
Using FanGraphs Offense (Off) statistic to measure value in comparison with strikeout rate yields the following number of players ABOVE 21%:
2 of Top 5 Off in MLB 40.0%
2 of Top 10 Off in MLB 20.0%
7 of Top 20 Off in MLB 35.0%
13 of Top 30 Off in MLB 43.3%
17 of Top 40 Off in MLB 42.5%
Focusing on the Top 10, the only 2 members with an above average K% were Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson. Now the reason I said "up to a certain point," is that these men combined for 98 home runs and their value is unquestioned even considering the strikeouts.
Coming at things from a different angle, Baseball Savant tracks a "Swing/Take" run total for each player in the MLB that examines the run impact of every pitch that player is involved in. It is a cumulative statistic that is a great indicator of how well a batter or pitcher has done in impacting runs scored.
In comparing K% as I did before the results are as follows, however, note that the player pool is different. Of the top 40 in run value, many have had a large impact without crossing the at-bat threshold to be qualified. Nonetheless, the leaders in total run value with a strikeout rate over 21% are as follows:
1 of Top 5 in Run Value 20.0%
3 of Top 10 in Run Value 30.0%
7 of Top 20 in Run Value 35.0%
13 of Top 30 in Run Value 43.3%
19 of Top 40 in Run Value 47.5%
The results to not much surprise are quite similar. Looking at the run value per plate appearance to eliminate the cumulative statistic skew does have a different look, however. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Matt Olson are all in the Top 5 with a high strikeout rate. There are 2 others above 21% in the Top 10 and there is a total of 10 in the Top 20. Here is a glimpse:
Yordan Alvarez 0.111 Run Value/PA 18.5 K%
Aaron Judge 0.100 Run Value/PA 28.4 K%
Shohei Ohtani 0.094 Run Value/PA 23.9 K%
Corey Seager 0.087 Run Value/PA 16.4 K%
Matt Olson 0.087 Run Value/PA 23.2 K%
Freddie Freeman 0.086 Run Value/PA 16.6 K%
Ronald Acuna 0.085 Run Value/PA 11.4 K%
Mookie Betts 0.084 Run Value/PA 15.4 K%
Nolan Jones 0.072 Run Value/PA 29.7 K%
Mitch Garver 0.069 Run Value/PA 23.8 K%
A common theme with 4 of the 5 names in the Top 10 here is that their K% with runners in scoring position is actually less than 21%. Nolan Jones tops the league in the difference between strikeout rate with runners in scoring position and all other situations by a very wide margin with 16.70%. No other player is in double digits in that regard in the entire league.
Aaron Judge 26.51 K% w/RISP -1.89%
Shohei Ohtani 19.57 K% w/RISP -4.33%
Matt Olson 19.37 K% w/RISP -3.83%
Nolan Jones 13.00 K% w/RISP -16.70%
Mitch Garver 18.60 K% w/RISP -5.20%
A high strikeout player can definitely have value as a whole, but as far as producing runs is concerned, the big spots with runners on base matter.
Is plate discipline and a low chase rate more important than strikeout rate?
Baseball Savant's "Swing/Take" analysis includes 4 attack regions as shown below: Heart, Shadow, Chase, and Waste.
It would make sense that good teams tend to avoid swinging at pitches in the Chase and Waste zones, but it isn't quite that straight forward. In fact, 5 of the 12 playoff teams in 2023 were among the top 10 in swinging at pitches in those regions, including the 104-win Atlanta Braves.
Across the league there were 222,439 pitches thrown in the Chase and Waste zones, and these were the results via Statcast:
41,109 Swings 18.5%
178,837 Called Balls 80.4%
430 Called Strikes 0.20%
2,063 Hit by Pitch 0.90%
Of those 41,109 swings, 24,235 were swings and misses, a rate of 58.9%. Only 1,693 were base hits were recorded, 289 of which were extra bases, yielding a batting average of .091 and a slugging percentage of 0.115. All this to say that it really isn't good for an offense to swing at many of these pitches.
With that being said, in the grand scheme of things for a very large sample size, it doesn't end up being that drastic of a spread from team to team. For example, 41,109 swings at bad pitches is on average 1,370 per team for the 2023 season. The Chicago White Sox led the league with 1,650 swings, 280 more than the average. Over 162 games, this is less than 2 pitches per game.
From an individual standpoint, however, it severely limits the value of a batter when they are swinging at a high percentage of bad pitches. For Statcast's percentile rankings, the bottom of the pack in chase rate from the 33th percentile down to the 1st included 88 players. Only 13 of those players had an expected wOBA ranking above the 75th percentile, a rate of less than 15 percent.
On the flip side, for the top 88 players in chase rate, 36 of them ranked above the 75th percentile in expected wOBA, a rate just above 40 percent. I don't think it can necessarily be said that chase rate matters more than strikeout rate definitively, but staying with our example:
Top 88 Players in K% 22 of 88 above the 75th Percentile in xwOBA 25.0%
Bottom 88 Players in K% 19 of 88 above the 75th Percentile in xwOBA 21.6%
Of course there are outliers that make fans question whether striking out matters all that much or whether swinging at balls in the dirt is all that important. When Aaron Judge is going to hit 50 home runs, who really cares right? Nonetheless, to answer my original question, the data shows that the discrepancy between a good hitter and a bad hitter is much more impacted by chase rate than it is by strikeout rate.
Do enough hitters change their approach in RBI situations?
I alluded to this list in a previous question, but this is the full Top 10 for the difference in strikeout rate with runners in scoring position as compared to the player's full season rate:
Nolan Jones 16.72% Colorado Rockies
Mike Tauchman 9.21% Chicago Cubs
Martin Maldonado 8.73% Houston Astros
Lars Nootbaar 8.47% St. Louis Cardinals
Mookie Betts 8.39% Los Angeles Dodgers
Elvis Andrus 8.08% Chicago White Sox
Rowdy Tellez 8.31% Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan O'Hearn 7.70% Baltimore Orioles
Patrick Bailey 7.38% San Francisco Giants
Gunnar Henderson 6.72% Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are the only team with multiple players on the list, which again goes to show their approach at the plate with runners on base. If the list was extended to the top 20, the Orioles would have 3 additional names appear, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Cedric Mullins. As a result of that, they have quite the lead atop the first spot of the team list:
Baltimore Orioles 3.70%
Colorado Rockies 2.46%
Milwaukee Brewers 2.11%
New York Yankees 2.04%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.68%
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.64%
Minnesota Twins 1.48%
Houston Astros 1.43%
Boston Red Sox 1.39%
Los Angeles Dodgers 1.34%
To answer the posed question here, I think more hitters should make more of an effort to shorten up with runners on base. It can bring a tremendous amount of value to an offense and increase the value of a player drastically. With that being said, it is not directly correlated with run value and a strong enough hitter will prevail regardless of a few percentage points difference here or there. It worked for the Baltimore Orioles all season and showed additional value in young players like Nolan Jones and Gunnar Henderson, but I doubt it takes the league by storm in any way.
Do teams putting the ball in play w/RISP correlate with runs scored?
Ultimately, the correlation was quite low for the percentage of balls put in play with runners in scoring position and runs scored for the team. The Phillies, Dodgers, and Twins were all playoff teams that appeared in the bottom 10 of balls in play with runner in scoring position. Now while the top 10 also included 5 playoff teams, the correlation as a whole was only 0.261.
My conclusion in the end is to take each analysis for each question completely individually. They all mean something about the game and can't be taken in conjuction to tell a particular story one way or the other. I wanted to leave this open to the viewer to draw their own conclusions and be a part of the push to make the game better and have it be understood on a greater level.
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