Tampa Bay Rays since 2018
Total Wins 412 (4th in MLB)
Total Payroll $364 Million* (29th in MLB - Pirates $313 Million)
wRC+ 106 (T-4th in MLB)
ERA 3.62 (3rd in MLB)
*Estimated by Fangraphs.com
Over this period since 2018, the Rays had a few noticeable trades that made drastic changes:
1. July 31, 2018
Rays Acquire: Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz
Pirates Acquire: Chris Archer
Meadows 2019: 33 HR 89 RBI .291 BA $557,400
Glasnow 2019: 6-1 Record 1.78 ERA 60.2 IP $566,700
Archer 2019: 3-9 Record 5.19 ERA 119.2 IP $7,666,667
2. December 27, 2020
Rays Acquire: Luis Patino, Cole Wilcox, Francisco Mejia, and Blake Hunt
Padres Acquire: Blake Snell
Blake Snell 2021: 7-6 Record 4.20 ERA 128.2 IP $11,100,000
3. May 21, 2021
Rays Acquire: J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen
Brewers Acquire: Willy Adames and Trevor Richards
Drew Rasmussen 2022: 11-7 Record 2.84 ERA 146.0 IP $711,800
Willy Adames 2022: 31 HR 98 RBI .238 BA $4,600,000
The Rays have made moves to send away key pieces of their team. At every turn, they have found great pieces in return. They dominated the Archer trade, got a lot of young pieces in the Snell trade, and although they may regret losing Willy Adames, Drew Rasmussen was a key piece of the 2022 season.
Other Notable Acquisitions still on the 2022 Team:
In January 2020, Randy Arozarena, along with Jose Martinez, was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Matthew Liberatore and Edgardo Rodriguez. He had a respectable end of the season with Tampa Bay, but all the rave was about his postseason performance.
In 20 games, he hit .377 with a record setting 10 home runs in a run to the World Series. He followed that up with a Rookie of the Year Award campaign in 2021 and a solid 2022 season with 20 home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a .327 on-base percentage.
2021 Salary: $581,200 2022 Salary: $716,600 Projected 2023 Salary: Around $4 Million
In December 2018, Yandy Diaz was acquired in a three-team deal that sent Edwin Encarnacion to the Seattle Mariners and Carlos Santana to the Indians. In 2022, Yandy Diaz put in a great season. He was tied with Julio Rodriguez for 8th in wRC+ with 146 runs. The names above him were all the top hitters in baseball from Aaron Judge in 1st down to Nolan Arenado in 7th. In other words, guys that make A LOT more money than him.
Yandy was 5th in OBP, 5th in lowest K%, and while his 9 home runs didn't showcase a tremendous amount of pop, he ranked in the 90th percentile or better in hard hit % and average exit velocity,
2021 Salary: $588,900 2022 Salary: $2,800,000 Projected 2023 Salary: Around $5.4 Million
In February 2021, Jeffrey Springs, along with Chris Mazza, was acquired from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Ronaldo Hernandez and Nick Sogard. Springs was a reliever prior to Tampa and only made relief appearances in 2021. In 2022, his role started that way as well, but by May, he was starting games and giving 4 to 6 innings every appearance.
Springs finished 2022 with a 9-5 Record, 2.46 ERA, and 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings.
2021 Salary: $585,000 2022 Salary: $947,500 Projected 2023 Salary: Around $3,000,000
In March 2022, Rays signed Jason Adam to a one-year deal. Across 4 seasons, Adam's ERA was well over 4 in 78.1 career innings and had bounced around between a few teams in that time. The Rays must have seen something because he turned it around in 2022:
Statcast Percentile Rankings
xERA 99th
xBA 99th
xSLG 99th
Hard Hit % 99th
Whiff % 98th
Chase Rate 96th
Fastball Spin Rate 100th (2nd in MLB Avg. Spin Rate by just 2 RPM)
2022 Salary: $900,000 Projected 2023 Salary: Around $1,900,000
Notable Draft Picks on the 2022 Team:
Brandon Lowe was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2015 MLB June Amatuer Draft. He was called up the Majors in 2018 and made some noise in 2019 with an Allstar appearance, however, an injury cut his season short. In a shortened 2020 season, Lowe hit 14 home runs in 56 games and had a .362 on-base percentage. He continued that success into 2021 and fell just 1 home run and 1 RBI short of a 40-100 season.
In March 2019, the Rays signed Lowe to a 6-year, $24 million contract that extended him through the 2024 season with 2 club options in 2025 and 2026 that total $22 million.
2021 Salary: $2,500,000 2022 Salary: $4,000,000 2023 Salary: $5,250,000
Wander Franco was signed as an international prospect and not technically drafted, but I am including him in this group. In 224 total minor league games over 4 seasons, Franco had a .335 batting average, an OPS of .939, and 101 walks as compared to just 80 strikeouts.
He will be just 22 years old when the 2023 season starts and still needs to improve in many ways, but the potential is certainly there. Even against big league arms, Franco is hitting .282 in his career thus far through 153 games with one of the lowest strikeout rates in the game. Before the 2022 season, Franco signed an 11-year $182 million contract that will make Tampa his home for a long time.
2021 Salary: $315,901 2022 Salary: $1,000,000 2023 Salary: $2,000,000
Shane McClanahan was drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft as the 31st overall pick. He was called up in 2021 and had a very good start to his career. He returned in 2022 even better, posting a 2.54 ERA and 194 strikeouts over 166.1 innings pitched. At just 25 years old, he is one of the best up and coming guys in the game, and is clearly in good hands with the Rays.
McClanahan is still in the pre-arbitration window at this point and is much cheaper than his value. The Rays will have control of him for quite a while and he is already looking like the ace of their staff for the length of that time, assuming no drastic changes.
2021 Salary: $481,519 2022 Salary: $711,400 2023 Salary: TBD
The Surprise 2022 Season of the Cleveland Guardians
Many of the preseason predictions for the Guardians were that they would play to a below .500 record, and fall to 3rd, or maybe even 4th, in the division race. Boy were those predictions wrong. Cleveland won the division with a 92-70 record, which tied for the 3rd best record in the whole league despite having an estimated payroll that ranked 27th at $69 million.
The only player that made any substantial money was Jose Ramirez at $22 million, which is unbelievably cheap with the contracts being thrown around. The second highest paid player was Shane Bieber at $6 million. Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez, both integral parts of the 2022 team, made only around $700k for their efforts. Emmanuel Clase was a shut down closer all season and brought in just under $2 million.
An interesting contrast to the "Moneyball" strategy is that the Guardians were among the top of the league in both stolen bases and sacrifices. They ranked 3rd in the league in both statistics with 119 and 22, respectively. They might not fit the "Moneyball" model that Oakland taught us back in 2002, but they had a hell of a 2022 season. Furthermore, I think this team, talent-wise, only got better for the 2023 season. The core is still intact and key additions were made to bring in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino to make those positions slightly better.
Projected 2023 Payroll $91 million (24th in MLB)
2022 ERA 3.47 (6th in MLB) - Same core rotation and relievers in 2023
2022 Runs Scored 698 (15th in MLB)
2022 Slugging % .383 (21st in MLB) - Bell and Zunino add pop
Can both these teams continue to show that low payroll doesn't always mean low wins?
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“Yandy Díaz.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 6 Oct. 2022, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yandy_D%C3%ADaz.
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