As we approach the end of the MLB regular season, the anticipation of playoff baseball continues to build. October is where boys become men, where breakouts make a career, and when its all set and done, it is where World Series champions are made. Let's take a stroll down memory lane to the best performances we've seen in the Winter Classic:
Top 10 OPS for a Single Postseason (Min 10 Games and 30 AB):
Barry Bonds 2002
Carlos Beltran 2004
Alex Rodriguez 2009
David Ortiz 2004
Paul Molitor 1993
Reggie Jackson 1978
Albert Pujols 2004
Willie Stargell 1979
Miguel Cabrera 2011
Phil Garner 1979
The list above is jam packed with Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famers, and steroid tainted would-be Hall of Famers. This next list isn't about the generational stars. Although quite short, it highlights the unexpected breakout performances that took the baseball world by storm.
Orlando Hernandez 1999
"El Duque" made his debut in 1998 with the New York Yankees. He made 21 starts during the regular season and made quite an impression during the Yankees playoff run. He pitched once in the ALCS and once in the World Series, pitching 14 innings total and giving up only one run on the way to a championship. He followed that up with a staggering 1999 performance:
30 Innings Pitched 1.20 ERA 0.967 WHIP
For pitchers to reach the 30 innings pitched mark in a single postseason, Hernandez's ERA ranks as the 7th best in history. He won the ALCS MVP in a 4-1 series win over the Boston Red Sox. He followed that up with a Game 1 victory in a World Series that was a clean sweep of the Atlanta Braves.
Josh Beckett 2003
Come October 2003, Josh Beckett had made 48 career starts and looked like a promising young star. He pitched 142 innings in 2003 with a 3.04 ERA. The Florida Marlins finished 2nd in the NL East and came in as a hopeful Wild Card team. They went on to have a miracle run to the World Series, with some credit to Steve Bartman of course, and defeated the New York Yankees 4-2.
42 2/3 Innings Pitched 2.11 ERA 0.773 WHIP
Beckett's innings total is the 4th highest in MLB playoff history after 1903. His WHIP also ranks 7th all time for pitchers with over 30 innings in a single postseason. He pitched 2 complete game shutouts, one in the NLCS and one in the World Series, a feat only 4 other men have achieved. The list goes on and on for how great a year it was for him and the unexpected World Series victory.
David Freese 2011
I listed above the top 10 list in OPS for a single postseason. David Freese in 2011 ranks as 13th all-time on that list. Two years prior in 2009, Freese made his debut and went on to play 17 games that season. He played 70 games in 2010 and 97 more in 2011 as the St. Louis Cardinals marched into October with just over a full season of games under his belt.
0.397 BA 1.266 OPS 5 HR 21 RBI 12 R
In the NLDS, he started well with a 0.278 average and 5 runs batted in over a 5-game series victory. He turned on a switch against the Brewers to the tune of the 11th highest OPS ever for a single series and the 5th highest in the 2000s. He, to no surprise, won the NLCS MVP and then proceeded to go on to win the World Series MVP Award as well. His performance was capped off by a game 6 extra innings walk-off home run to keep the Cardinals alive for game 7. His 21 runs batted in for a single postseason are the most in history.
Randy Arozarena 2020
By the end of 2020, Arozarena had played a grand total of 42 games and racked up just 84 career at-bats. Within a month, everyone knew this guy's name. By the end of the Rays playoff run, Arozarena had tallied 77 at-bats, nearly reaching his career regular season total up to that point. Right above David Freese, Randy Arozarena posted the 11th highest OPS in single postseason in 2020:
0.455 BA 1.286 OPS 10 HR 14 RBI 19 R
The Rays outfielder was consistent throughout October. He hit at least 3 home runs in each series and his total of 10 leave him as the only man in history to reach double digits in a single postseason. His career playoff OPS currently ranks 3rd in the history of the game for players with at least 80 at-bats. He only trails Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. A very large majority of those career at-bats came during his 2020 run, but unfortunately he is the only player on our list that didn't go home with a ring.
There have been more great single game performances and single season performances than can even truly be counted. The thing that sets the legends apart from the rest, however, is the consistency and longevity of careerlong playoff success. Although it was quite a hard task to pick and choose, I made a list of the top 10 playoff pitchers and top 10 playoff hitters of all time.
Pitchers:
Mariano Rivera 141 IP 42 Saves 0.70 ERA 0.759 WHIP
Sandy Koufax 57 IP 4 CG 0.95 ERA 0.825 WHIP
Bob Gibson 81 IP 8 CG 1.89 ERA 0.889 WHIP
John Smoltz 209 IP 15 Wins 2.67 ERA 1.144 WHIP
Madison Bumgarner 102 IP 3 SHO 2.11 ERA 0.899 WHIP
Curt Schilling 133 IP 11 Wins 2.23 ERA 0.968 WHIP
Jon Lester 154 IP 9 Wins 2.51 ERA 1.019 WHIP
Orel Hershiser 132 IP 4 CG 2.59 ERA 1.106 WHIP
Whitey Ford 146 IP 7 CG 2.71 ERA 1.137 WHIP
Dave Stewart 133 IP 10 Wins 2.77 ERA 1.105 WHIP
Hitters:
Babe Ruth 41 G .325 BA 1.211 OPS 15 HR 33 RBI 37 R
Lou Gehrig 34 G .361 BA 1.211 OPS 10 HR 35 RBI 30 R
Albert Pujols 88 G .319 BA 1.025 OPS 19 HR 54 RBI 57 R
Carlos Beltran 65 G .307 BA 1.024 OPS 16 HR 42 RBI 45 R
Paul Molitor 29 G .368 BA 1.051 OPS 6 HR 22 RBI 28 R
Manny Ramirez 111 G .285 BA 0.952 OPS 29 HR 78 RBI 67 R
David Ortiz 85 G .289 BA 0.964 OPS 17 HR 61 RBI 51 R
George Brett 43 G .337 BA 1.042 OPS 10 HR 23 RBI 30 R
Lenny Dykstra 32 G .321 BA 1.100 OPS 10 HR 19 RBI 27 R
Lance Berkman 52 G .317 BA 0.964 OPS 9 HR 41 RBI 38 R
I have thrown quite a few names out there. Many of which are old news. With that being said, it begs the question, what can we expect from the players that will be playing in the coming weeks?
Let's first look at players on playoff teams or potential playoff teams that have had great playoff success:
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
It is still up in the air as to if the Mariners will make it to the playoffs. As I am writing this, they are a half game back of the third Wild Card spot, trailing the Houston Astros. Although Castillo has only made 3 career postseason starts, he has had great success. He was 1 out short of 20 innings in those starts and only 4 runs crossed the plate, yielding a 1.83 ERA. If Seattle is able to sneak into the playoffs, Castillo could be the key piece in a surprise run.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
There isn't much more to say that hasn't already been said about Arozarena's playoff heroics. To reiterate, he has the third highest postseason career OPS. He took the world by storm in 2020 and the Rays are going to need production from him to have a chance at a title in 2023.
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
The dynasty that the Astros built for a strong 5 to 6 year period was truly historical. From 2017 to 2021, the Astros made the ALCS in all 5 seasons, reaching the World Series 3 times and winning a championship in 2017, although tainted by a cheating scandal. In Correa's 79 career postseason games with the Houston Astros, his 59 runs batted in rank 6th all-time, and his 18 home runs are tied for 7th all-time. Coming into 2023, his injury history was a huge concern, and although he has played 135 games this season, his production certainly is down from his Astro years. Can he return to Astros playoff form? Time will tell.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Looking at Corey Seager's full playoff resume, it is not overly impressive. With that being said, his 2020 postseason performance leading to a World Series championship was quite astounding. He is one of only 5 players to hit 8 home runs in a single postseason. He batted .328 with 20 runs batted in, 20 runs, and a 1.171 OPS. He had little success in 2021, however, and missed the playoffs in 2022, but is firing on all cylinders right now during the regular season. The Texas Rangers have a strong enough roster to go all the way and Seager could be the difference.
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
Eovaldi didn't have a tremendous amount of success in his last playoff campaign with the Boston Red Sox in 2021. However, in 2018, he was a vital part of their World Series championship team. He appeared in 6 games, 2 of them being starts, and had an ERA of 1.61 over 22 1/3 innings pitched. Although he has played on a few different teams, this will be his first playoff run without a Red Sox uniform on. The Rangers picked him up to step up in big moments and this is his chance.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
I praised Carlos Correa and the Astros dynasty already so I won't repeat myself, but it is crazy to think where many of the Houston players stand in the record books. Jose Altuve is 1 of only 10 players to play in 90 career postseason games, he is 2nd all-time with 23 home runs, 3rd all-time with 78 runs scored, and 4th all-time with 103 hits. At 33 years of age, he is getting closer to the end of his career, but this dynasty is still going strong. Fresh off of a World Series win in 2022, the Astros can't be counted out in 2023.
Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves
Rosario has had success here and there, playing in 6 playoff games for the Minnesota Twins before finding his way in Atlanta for the 2021 postseason run. He batted over .300 in the NLDS and then exploded in the NLCS, winning the series MVP in a huge win over the Dodgers. He batted .560 with 3 home runs, 9 runs batted in, and a 1.647 OPS. He wasn't able to reach base in Atlanta's 2022 loss to the Phillies, but can he bounce back in 2023?
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
It is no surprise to see Freddie Freeman's name on the list. The guy just hits and he always seems to put up good numbers. For his career, he has a .296 career average, 0.947 career OPS, and 22 extra-base hits in 46 games for the Braves and Dodgers. He was a huge catalyst for the Braves in 2021 and has produced one of his best regular season performances of his career in 2023. Look out for the Dodgers first baseman.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes being part of the list is a bit of a stretch on my part. He has had a very small sample size, but it will be interesting to see how he steps up for the Brewers in October. He has 15 career innings in the playoffs, coming out of the bullpen in 2018 and making his first start in 2021 with 6 innings scoreless. His career ERA is 1.20 with a 0.667 WHIP.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
It is no secret that Harper struggled in the playoffs with the Nationals. Despite winning a Rookie of the Year and MVP award, the team didn't win a title until they shipped him out of town. In 2022 with the Phillies, he seized his opportunity. Harper hit 6 home runs, 7 doubles, and drove in 13 runs in just 17 games on a miracle run to the World Series. The Phillies offense was on fire from the very start, but unfortunately they fell in 6 games to the Houston Astros. Can the Phillies make another championship bid as a Wild Card team?
And now for the players who REALLY need to turn their playoff careers around:
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Betts is an MVP award winner, 2-time World Series champion, and a perennial candidate to add a variety of trophies to his mantle piece. In the Red Sox 2018 run, however, Betts was far from the player he was in the regular season and the power numbers in general haven't shown in the postseason much at all since then either. In Betts regular season career, he has averaged hitting a home run about every 5 games. In contrast, he has hit only 4 home runs in 55 career postseason games, a rate of almost 14 games per home run. For the Dodgers to be the team they have been all season, Betts needs to be the player he has been all season.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
The playoff success of Kershaw has been a recurring topic over the years and it still can't be overlooked. He has a career record of 13-12 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.077 WHIP. His 194 innings pitched are 7th all-time, but he just hasn't been the hall of famer we've seen in the regular season. Kershaw had his best success during the 2020 win and has only made 1 playoff start since that championship victory. At 35 years of age, he won't have too many more opportunities to get another ring. He will have to make the best of his chance in 2023.
Craig Kimbrel, Philadelphia Phillies
Kimbrel will go down as one of the greatest closers of all-time. He became the 8th member of the 400 save club this season and might still have a few years left in him. With that being said, his 2.41 ERA for his regular season career is quite different from his 4.13 ERA in the postseason. He was part of the 2018 Red Sox team, however, gave up 8 earned runs in just under 11 innings in that postseason. With the Phillies ready to make another great run from the Wild Card spot, Kimbrel needs to be on top of his game.
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
In 43 career postseason games, Turner is batting .238 with only 8 runs batted in. At times during the regular season in 2023, he has struggled as well. Phillies fans stuck by him through those struggles, however, and his production did go up quite a bit in August and September. If Turner can continue that progression and maybe even channel his heroic effort from the World Baseball Classic, this postseason could get really fun for Philly.
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
Across 6 years and 15 series with the Dodgers, Bellinger has appeared in 69 postseason games. If the Cubs are able to hold onto a Wild Card spot, this would be his first campaign for his new team. He is batting .211 for his playoff career with a 0.661 OPS. At times, he had great moments and even great series, but as a whole he has struggled in October. The Cubs have a tough pitching matchup with the Brewers if they get locked into the 6 seed, but this is Bellinger's chance to change the trajectory of his postseason career.
Sources
Sean Lahman Database 2022 Version
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