"Wow. " That is a word uttered by many baseball fans as big numbers keep showing up on the board for top free agents. The excitement was topped off by a mega 9-year 360 million dollar deal signed by Aaron Judge, but the money being thrown around the league in general has been insane. Between this offseason and last, the baseball world has seen a few of the biggest contracts in MLB history:
Aaron Judge $360 Million 9 Years (#3 on All-Time List)
Francisco Lindor $341 Million 10 Years (#4 on All-Time List)
Fernando Tatis Jr. $340 Million 14 Years (#5 on All-Time List)
Corey Seager $325 Million 10 Years (# T-7 on All-Time List)
Trea Turner $300 Million 11 Years (# T-11 on All-Time List)
Xander Bogaerts $280 Million 11 Years (#12 on All-Time List)
Two men that did not show up on this list, but who are worth mentioning will be leading the Mets rotation in 2023. Max Scherzer and new acquisition Justin Verlander will be tied for the largest single-season salary in MLB history at a whopping $43.33 million dollars.
How Has Money in Baseball Changed Over Time?
Taking a trip back in time, we can find the biggest salary milestones throughout history. One cannot flip through many pages in the record books without reading the name "Ty Cobb." The Georgia Peach had over 4,000 hits, sporting an all-time career record .366 batting average and winning an MVP in 1911. Shortly after that MVP campaign, Cobb would go on to yield the first five-figure salary with a $12,000 payday in 1913. Cobb would also be the first player to climb the $25,000 salary mountain. However, it didn't last very long.
Can the words "baseball history" be spoken without mention of Babe Ruth? While Ty Cobb was waving his new paycheck around in 1921, The Babe smacked the ball around to the tune of 59 homeruns, 168 RBIs, and a .378 batting average. The following year in 1922, the Yankees slugger set a brand new mark with a $52,000 salary, more than doubling the mark set by Cobb just one year earlier.
The first six-figure salary wouldn't be set until 1949 with "Joltin' Joe" Dimaggio. Over 30 years later, Nolan Ryan broke the seven-figure mark in 1980. Albert Belle surpassed eight-figures in 1997 with a $10 million salary right on the nose. Alex Rodriguez was the first to hit both $20 million and $30 million in 2001 and 2009, respectively. It took 13 more years after that for the Mets to give out the first $40 million salary to Max Scherzer.
When Will the Next Milestones be Reached?
It only takes one or two big splashes in the market for the outlook of things to change drastically. Mike Trout's 12-year $426,500,00 million contract signed back in 2019 set a baseline for the value of the best player on the planet at that point in time. A similar baseline was set back in 2001 with the 10-year $252 million contract signed by Alex Rodriguez. While some of the large growth in salaries can be attributed to general inflation in the United States, the inflation in MLB money has far outweighed it. Since 2000, the country's cumulative inflation is 69.01%, while the MLB's highest salary benchmark has increased 262.63%. Just since 2010 the highest salary has increased 31.31%, a growth of 2.61% per year on average.
If we project that 2.61% growth forward starting with 2023 staying constant at $43.33 million, we could see:
Salary | Year |
$50,576,140.15 | By 2029 |
$60,569.855.04 | By 2036 |
$70,693,603.86 | By 2042 |
$80,411,181.81 | By 2047 |
Projecting even a little bit further, by 2050, we could see a salary of $86,871,683.71, a mark that doubles the Max Scherzer total that currently tops the charts. With the standard 10 to 12 year contracts being seen for top players, a huge contract could approach a billion dollar total. Yes, billion with a "B."
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Haupert, Michael. “Baseball’s Major Salary Milestones.” Society for American Baseball Research, Admin /Wp-Content/Uploads/2020/02/sabr_logo.Png, 31 Aug. 2021, https://sabr.org/journal/article/baseballs-major-salary-milestones/.
Haupert, Michael. “MLB’s Annual Salary Leaders since 1874.” Society for American Baseball Research, Admin /Wp-Content/Uploads/2020/02/sabr_logo.Png, 19 June 2020, https://sabr.org/research/article/mlbs-annual-salary-leaders-since-1874/.
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