The season we saw from Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2023 was truly amazing. The Atlanta Braves offense dominated the game and it started with their leadoff hitter. He was what every team would want from the top of the lineup: a high on base percentage, speed, and power. The National League East powerhouse lost, however, to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.
The series started off with a bang. Braves ace Spencer Strider gave up a first pitch double to the Phillies designated hitter, Kyle Schwarber. Now, if I told a younger version of you that a slow, high strikeout rate, 0.197 batting average hitter was leading off a division playoff series, would you believe it? What if I told you that his 0.205 average in games he lead off during the regular season is the worst mark ever for a player who batted in that spot at least 350 times (data only recorded since 2002). Why am I telling you all this? To prove that the dynamics of an MLB lineup have drastically changed over time. There is no way this guy would be anywhere near the leadoff spot in 1995, 2005, or maybe even 2015.
The leadoff spot hasn't been the only difference. In 2023, among the hitters with the most plate appearances out of the 2-hole were Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, and Aaron Judge. All 3 are prototypical 3-4 hitters in the old style of baseball. In fact, Freddie Freeman had 730 of his career 1,635 plate appearances in the 2 spot just last year. This leads me to our first major question, does any of the data actually back this up?
The Data
From 2002-2009, the 1-2 lineup spots produced an OPS 0.90% below the league average while the 3-4 spots produced an OPS 18.90% above the league average. 2010-2012 didn't show much different, but in 2013 the shift started.
Year | 1-2 Spot OPS vs. League Avg | 3-4 Spot OPS vs. League Avg | 5-6 Spot OPS vs League Avg |
2013 | +1.00% | +16.00% | +3.30% |
2014 | +3.00% | +15.10% | +1.80% |
2015 | +4.30% | +16.60% | +1.10% |
2016 | +4.30% | +14.80% | +2.90% |
2017 | +4.10% | +13.00% | 2.70% |
2018 | +6.50% | +13.00% | +1.70% |
2019 | +8.40% | +12.30% | +1.00% |
2021 | +8.40% | +13.10% | +0.60% |
2022 | +5.90% | +9.20% | -2.10% |
2023 | +8.70% | +7.30% | -1.00% |
The 1 and 2 spots surpassed the 3 and 4 spots in OPS for the first time on the list in 2023. In 2012, the 1-2 was almost 2 percentage points below the league average, yet not a single season since has fallen below the average.
In 2023, the top 10 players in AL and NL MVP voting averaged the following percentage of games started in each lineup location:
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
29.82% | 30.99% | 22.98% | 9.34% | 3.99% |
A majority of the 2023 MVP candidates started their games in the 1-2 spot. The 2012 MVP vote, however, was quite the contrast.
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
9.75% | 0.29% | 39.90% | 37.83% | 8.61% |
The total difference for the 1 and 2 spots combined is a whopping 50.78% increase while the 3, 4, and 5 spots is a 50.03% decrease. More teams are putting an emphasis on getting their important hitters more at bats. That means moving away from the traditional "clean-up hitter" at the 4 spot and placing a star player higher up in the lineup.
From 2010 to 2012, Miguel Cabrera was the face of baseball. During that 3 year period he led the MLB in wRC+, WAR, and OPS, winning an MVP in 2012. Cabrera started 34.47% of that 3 year stretch in the 3 hole and the other 65.53% in the aforementioned "clean-up" 4 spot. Despite being 8th in games played and 8th in total plate appearances, he was 38th in plate appearances per game among qualified hitters. Ranked 14th on that list was his teammate Austin Jackson, a lifetime 0.729 OPS hitter. In 2010, Jackson and a 36 year old 0.756 OPS Johnny Damon hit in front of Cabrera regularly. In 2011, Jackson's 2-hole pairing varied, but collectively the lineup spot produced a 0.742 OPS. Even after Prince Fielder showed up in 2012, the two stars batted in the 3-4 spot and watched the 2-spot produce an OPS of 0.710. Guess what teams around the league learned from this? Stop letting your best hitters lose at bats to inferior teammates.
In the same way that Miggy dominated, Aaron Judge led the MLB in wRC+, WAR, and OPS for a 3 year stretch from 2021 to 2023. In games he started, this is where he batted:
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
8.48% | 66.33% | 24.69% | 0.00% |
Almost 8.5 percent of games started in the leadoff spot and not a single start in the 4th spot. You don't hit 62 homeruns unless you get an abundance of chances at the plate. The only player getting more plate appearances per game than Judge during this time was DJ LeMahieu. Now while he wasn't as productive as the Yankees would have liked, he did come off an almost 0.900 OPS season in 2019 and a 1.011 OPS 2020 shortened season before settling for around a 0.720 from 2021 to 2023. The point being that offensive production out of the top of the lineup is far more important than a speedy table setter. However, it does help if you have a Ronald Acuna that just so happens to be both.
With that being said, a question you may be thinking is, what is the value of the classic speed first top of the order hitter of the past? Let's use a few examples. 1999 Tony Womack, 2005 Juan Pierre, and 2005 Jimmy Rollins are all great examples.
The 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks were stacked. Not only did they have Cy Young Award winner Randy Johnson, but an offense that led the National League in runs. The lineup consisted of 3 hitters with over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, as well as a .336/.403/.549 slash line from Luis Gonzalez. He fell short of the 30 homer mark, but still led the team with a 0.952 OPS. The lineup for this juggernaut offense, however, was leadoff by none other than right fielder Tony Womack. He had a MLB leading 72 stolen bases after leading the National League in the 2 prior years with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
A great statistic for evaluating a player's impact on his team is RE24. It takes into account the change in run expectancy as a result of an at bat or any change in the base-out situation i.e., a stolen base for example. Whether you're getting on to start an inning, driving in a run with 2 outs, or advancing on the base paths, it all contributes to your RE24 total.
Despite besting the league with a total 8.5 base running value as per FanGraphs, Womack only produced a 0.13 RE24. This just narrowly edged the 0 value league average, but paled in comparison to his teammates.
Player | OPS | PA per 162 Games | RE24 |
Tony Womack | 0.702 | 770 | 0.13 |
Jay Bell | 0.931 | 738 | 43.79 |
Luis Gonzalez | 0.952 | 734 | 44.63 |
Matt Williams | 0.880 | 713 | 37.67 |
Steve Finley | 0.861 | 689 | 25.89 |
Now, without me saying anything further, does it seem as if Womack's base running value is worth 30 more at bats per 162 games than his 0.900+ OPS teammates or 50 to 60 more at bats than his 0.800+ OPS counterparts? I will let you answer that.
Let's talk about our old friend, Miguel Cabrera. Before he was the face of the Tigers, he was a young star for the Florida Marlins. He produced a 0.947 OPS in 2005, alongside first baseman, Carlos Delgado, who produced an even higher total of 0.981. Juan Pierre appeared in every game for the Marlins in 2005, starting in the leadoff spot in 138 of those appearances. His 57 stolen bases ranked 4th in the MLB while his OPS of 0.680 ranked 137th among 149 qualified hitters. Luis Castillo and Juan Encarnacion, who typically occupied the 2 and 5 spots, respectively, seemed like far better options to take the 1 spot and move Cabrera and Delgado from 3-4 to 2-3.
Player | OPS | PA per 162 | RE24 |
Juan Pierre | 0.680 | 719 | -1.12 |
Luis Castillo | 0.765 | 696 | 3.08 |
Juan Encarnacion | 0.795 | 647 | 16.14 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.947 | 702 | 39.77 |
Carlos Delgado | 0.981 | 693 | 46.53 |
I am not going to give a long-winded explanation about the 2005 Phillies and Jimmy Rollins. I will make it short and simple. On October 2nd, 2005, the Phillies fell one win short of the playoffs on the last game of the season. This was their lineup on that day:
Lineup | Season OPS | Season RE24 |
| 0.770 | 4.56 |
2. Kenny Lofton | 0.811 | 25.19 |
3. Chase Utley | 0.915 | 39.62 |
4. Bobby Abreu | 0.879 | 51.79 |
5. Pat Burrell | 0.892 | 37.73 |
6. Ryan Howard | 0.924 | 14.29 |
7. David Bell | 0.671 | -30.65 |
8. Todd Pratt | 0.726 | -3.70 |
9. Jon Lieber (P) | 0.230 | -17.59 |
On October 7th, 2023, just 5 calendar days off from the previous date in 2005, the very same Philadelphia Phillies handed in a lineup card with Kyle Schwarber as their leadoff hitter for the NLDS.
His regular season produced 0 stolen bases. His base running value of -4.5 was the 9th worst in baseball. And yet, his 0.817 OPS in 720 plate appearances to produce a 20.97 RE24 was enough to land him the 1 spot.
All data taken from https://www.baseball-reference.com/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/
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