Underperformers and Overachievers of 2024

During the offseason, I created a win projection model that takes into account the following:

Team adjusted ERA (ERA-)

Team weighted runs created (wRC+)

Team On-Base Percentage

Team adjusted WHIP (WHIP+)

With these 4 metrics, it generates a projected win total over a 162 game season. At this point on June 7th, 2024, teams are right around the 62 game mark with 100 to go. Using current and projected winning percentages, there are 16 teams outperforming their projected win total and 14 teams underperforming. The model so far in 2024 as a whole on average has underestimated actual wins by about 0.28 wins per team and 8.4 wins overall across the league.

Biggest Team Outliers

Cleveland Guardians 90.32 Projected Wins Actual Win % 0.6557 * 162 Games = 106.23

Minnesota Twins 73.36 Projected Wins Actual Win % 0.5323 * 162 Games = 86.23

Tampa Bay Rays 69.58 Projected Wins Actual Win % 0.5000*162 Games = 81.00

Boston Red Sox 96.36 Projected Wins Actual Win % 0.5079*162 Games = 82.29

The Guardians, Twins, and Rays have all picked up many more wins than the model would predict based on their team statistics. On the other side of the coin, it has the Red Sox expected to win 14 more games this season as compared to their current trajectory. The Red Sox are currently in the top 5 in both ERA and WHIP. Their overall ERA is 3.33 with a 3.57 ERA at home despite playing in the 2nd most hitter friendly ballpark, only behind Coors Field.

The Guardians are 1 of only 4 teams on pace to win over 100 games and here is the difference in team statistics for those teams:

Guardians	On Pace 106-56	0.316 OBP	105 wRC+	96 WHIP+	91 ERA-
Orioles	On Pace 104-58	0.308 OBP	115 wRC+	92 WHIP+	86 ERA-
Phillies	On Pace 113-49	0.329 OBP	110 wRC+	87 WHIP+	72 ERA-
Yankees	On Pace 114-48	0.336 OBP	124 wRC+	90 WHIP+	75 ERA-

The Guardians are beat in every category with the exception of slightly edging the Orioles in on-base percentage. They aren't quite in the tier of 3 other teams listed and the projected win totals confirms that:

Guardians 90.32 Projected Wins 8th in MLB

Orioles 97.52 Projected Wins 4th in MLB

Phillies 108.09 Projected Wins 2nd in MLB

Yankees 112.78 Projected Wins 1st in MLB

Looking a little closer at the top 2 teams in the MLB, the Phillies and Yankees have been nothing short of amazing:

The 124 wRC+ for the Yankees would be tied for the 3rd best team total in the modern era, only trailing the 1927 New York Yankees and 2023 Atlanta Braves. Their current pace of 114 wins would tie the 1998 New York Yankees for the 3rd best record in the history of baseball, only trailing the 1906 Cubs and the 2001 Mariners.

Since 1910, the 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team to play a full season and have a better ERA- than the the current 2024 Philadelphia Phillies. The 2022 Dodgers had a 71 ERA- and the 2020 Dodgers had a 69 ERA- in the shortened season. The Phillies current FIP- of 80 would be tied for the 3rd best ever, trailing the 2017 Cleveland Indians and 2018 Houston Astros. Their starting rotation above all has been truly historical. Their ERA- for starters is currently 65 and would be the greatest of all time, even beating the 1906 Cub's total of 66. This is the Phillies current rotation that has pitched enough innings to be qualified:

Pitcher	Innings Pitched	Record	ERA	ERA-
Aaron Nola	84.1	8-2	2.77	68
Zack Wheeler	80.2	7-3	2.23	55
Ranger Suarez	74.0	9-1	1.70	42
Cristopher Sanchez	66.1	3-3	2.71	67

It is going to be extremely difficult to hold up anything that even closely resembles this pace. In 2020, Trevor Bauer and Shane Bieber were able to beat the ERA- total of 42 where Ranger Suarez currently sits in about the same amount of innings. The only pitcher to beat it over a full season was Pedro Martinez in 2000 with an ERA- of 35.

On the complete opposite side of things, the Chicago White Sox look as if they are going to be in the running for one of the worst teams ever. They are on pace for 38 wins and projected by the model only slightly higher at 43. Their current win percentage of 0.2381 would be the 2nd worst in the modern era, only besting the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics. Even their projected win percentage of 0.2689 would wind up the 7th worst in the modern era. Out of every team there has been since 1901, this is where the 2024 Chicago White Sox rank:

0.277 Team OBP T-7th Worst in the Modern Era

75 wRC+ T-27th Worst in the Modern Era

117 WHIP+ T-13th Worst in the Modern Era

129 ERA- T-20th Worst in the Modern Era

Keep in mind, this includes 2,676 teams over this period.........

We have seen the best, we have seen the worst, now it is time for the full list.

Team	Projected Wins	Projected Win %	Actual Wins	Losses	Win %	162 Pace	Difference
CLE	90.32	0.5575	40	21	0.6557	106.23	15.91
MIN	73.36	0.4529	33	29	0.5323	86.23	12.86
TBR	69.58	0.4295	31	31	0.5000	81.00	11.42
TOR	71.58	0.4419	30	32	0.4839	78.39	6.80
BAL	97.52	0.6020	39	22	0.6393	103.57	6.05
KCR	89.47	0.5523	37	26	0.5873	95.14	5.68
SEA	85.96	0.5306	36	28	0.5625	91.13	5.16
PHI	108.09	0.6672	44	19	0.6984	113.14	5.06
SFG	73.13	0.4514	30	33	0.4762	77.14	4.01
DET	77.54	0.4787	31	31	0.5000	81.00	3.46
ATL	91.59	0.5654	35	25	0.5833	94.50	2.91
NYY	112.78	0.6962	45	19	0.7031	113.91	1.13
STL	75.91	0.4686	29	32	0.4754	77.02	1.11
ARI	76.23	0.4706	30	33	0.4762	77.14	0.91
CHC	78.97	0.4875	31	32	0.4921	79.71	0.74
MIL	93.54	0.5774	36	26	0.5806	94.06	0.52
PIT	75.85	0.4682	29	33	0.4677	75.77	-0.08
COL	58.72	0.3624	22	40	0.3548	57.48	-1.23
TEX	81.38	0.5024	30	32	0.4839	78.39	-2.99
WSN	74.21	0.4581	27	35	0.4355	70.55	-3.66
OAK	67.29	0.4154	25	39	0.3906	63.28	-4.01
MIA	58.91	0.3636	21	41	0.3387	54.87	-4.04
LAA	67.11	0.4143	24	38	0.3871	62.71	-4.40
CHW	43.56	0.2689	15	48	0.2381	38.57	-4.99
CIN	83.20	0.5136	30	33	0.4762	77.14	-6.06
NYM	77.48	0.4783	27	35	0.4355	70.55	-6.93
HOU	79.23	0.4891	28	35	0.4444	72.00	-7.23
LAD	106.45	0.6571	39	25	0.6094	98.72	-7.73
SDP	86.45	0.5336	32	34	0.4848	78.55	-7.90
BOS	96.36	0.5948	32	31	0.5079	82.29	-14.08

Sources

https://www.fangraphs.com/ was used for all data